Softs Report 12/02/19

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher last week. The market got some good news on Friday as USDA reported another strong week of export sales. China was included as a buyer which has been considered important for Cotton demand moving forward. China has also been buying Cotton from Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production. The market has not been able to move a lot in terms of price for the last month as the harvest has been ongoing amid some stressful conditions. Last week featured very cold temperatures and some worry about quality but not enough to affect prices much. The harvest will start to wind down over the next couple of weeks and certified inventories have been steadily growing but will soon start to level off. The market could hold to a sideways to weaker pattern until the tail end of the harvest.
Overnight News: The Delta should see dry weather and near to above normal temperatures, but trending to near to above normal by early next week. The Southeast should get some showers today and tomorrow then turn dry. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be mostly above normal. The USDA average price is now 60.65 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 86,133 bales, from 85,510 bales yesterday. ICE said that 10 notices were posted against December contracts and that the total deliveries for the month are now 768 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6510, 6480, and 6370 March, with resistance of 6610, 6690, and 6710 March.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Nov 29
As of Nov 22. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Dec 19 70 7,035 -6,965 24 15,893 -15,869
Mar 20 36,579 34,943 1,636 25,620 15,979 9,641
May 20 15,174 14,888 286 1,470 1,473 -3
Jul 20 18,963 18,688 275 3,127 3,111 16
Oct 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 20 13,854 13,740 114 20,268 20,056 212
Mar 21 4,966 4,929 37 967 967 0
May 21 2,063 1,726 337 147 0 147
Jul 21 3,270 3,097 173 66 0 66
Oct 21 71 0 71 0 0 0
Dec 21 669 511 158 1,197 1,043 154
Mar 22 440 440 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 0 0 0 7 7 0
Dec 23 0 0 0 7 7 0
Total 96,119 99,997 -3,878 52,900 58,536 -5,636
Open Change
Int
Dec 19 1,222 28,045 -26,823
Mar 20 122,965 127,956 -4,991
May 20 30,745 29,162 1,583
Jul 20 16,336 16,390 -54
Oct 20 5 4 1
Dec 20 24,264 24,052 212
Mar 21 1,048 1,062 -14
May 21 185 196 -11
Jul 21 340 329 11
Oct 21 0 0 0
Dec 21 202 202 0
Mar 22 1 1 0
Dec 22 0 0 0
Dec 23 0 0 0
Total 197,313 227,399 -30,086

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower for the week in narrow range trading. Overall chart patterns suggest that the market is in a trading range. Futures had held the same range since April. USDA showed strong production last month at more than 77 million boxes of Oranges from Florida and demand remains weaker. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 35% above last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers this week and mostly dry weather this weekend. Temperatures will average mostly above normal but below normal this weekend. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 99.00, 96.00, and 95.00 January, with resistance at 101.00, 102.00, and 104.00 January.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Dec 2
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
11/16/2019 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
11/16/2019 11/17/2018 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 284.66 211.06 34.9%
Retail/Institutional 6.22 6.01 3.6%
Total 290.88 217.07 34.0%
Pack
Bulk 0.59 0.70 -16.2%
Retail/Institutional 1.18 1.17 0.9%
Total Pack 1.77 1.87 -5.5%
Reprocessed -1.68 -1.74 -3.5%
Pack from Fruit 0.09 0.13 -32.5%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.05 -0.03 87.4%
Imports – Foreign 0.23 1.41 -83.6%
Domestic Receipts 0.00 0.03 -100.0%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 1.27 0.00 NA
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.02 0.04 -49.4%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 285.14 211.47 34.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.40 7.18 3.1%
Total 292.54 218.65 33.8%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 4.18 5.46 -23.4%
Exports 0.32 0.02 1263.2%
Total (Bulk) 4.50 5.48 -17.9%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.31 1.39 -5.8%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.31 1.39 -5.8%
Total Movement 5.81 6.87 -15.5%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 280.64 205.99 36.2%
Retail/Institutional 6.09 5.79 5.3%
Ending Inventory 286.73 211.78 35.4%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
16-Nov-19 17-Nov-18 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 311.95 237.21 31.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.82 5.92 -1.6%
Total 317.77 243.13 30.7%
Pack
Bulk 2.42 5.19 -53.4%
Retail/Institutional 8.95 8.22 8.9%
Total Pack 11.37 13.41 -15.2%
Reprocessed -11.04 -12.95 -14.8%
Pack from Fruit 0.33 0.46 -27.6%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.06 -0.45 -86.6%
Imports – Foreign 3.42 12.93 -73.6%
Domestic Receipts 1.56 0.05 3042.3%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 1.59 0.24 574.8%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.13 0.13 -0.5%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 309.96 242.35 27.9%
Retail/Institutional 14.78 14.14 4.5%
Total 324.74 256.48 26.6%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 27.00 34.49 -21.7%
Domestic 2.32 1.86 24.7%
Exports 29.32 36.36 -19.3%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 8.68 8.35 4.0%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 8.68 8.35 4.0%
Total Movement 38.01 44.71 -15.0%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 280.64 205.99 36.2%
Retail/Institutional 6.09 5.79 5.3%
Ending Inventory 286.73 211.78 35.4%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher for the week in New York and a little higher in London. Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas to help ideas of big production in the coming year, but overall it remains dry. The Brazilian crop is developing but some exporters say they are out of previous crop supplies to sell. It is dry in other parts of Latin America as well. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras where a large part of the deliverable stocks come from. Peru is also too dry right now. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low to provide profits. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers as producers and traders will need to create new storage space and are expected to do this by selling old crop Coffee. Reports from Brazil indicate that flowering is off to a very good start. Rains are expected again in Coffee areas this week. Overall the Coffee areas remain in a rain deficit but have had some timely rains to start the flowering. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.119 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 107.20 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers this week and dry weather this weekend and above normal temperatures. Scattered showers are forecast for next week. Vietnam will see scattered showers in all areas, but trends are a little dryer now. ICE said that 3 contracts were delivered against December NY Coffee and that total deliveries for the month are now 228 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 105.00, 104.00, and 103.00 December, and resistance is at 108.00, 110.00 and 111.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1380, 1360, and 1340 January, and resistance is at 1430, 1460, and 1480 January.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/26/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
136,751 80,444 69,140 9,174 3,972 2,058
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 58.8% 50.6% 6.7% 2.9% 1.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
149 54 41 13 6 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
5,313 22,736 11,472 2,166 4,354 18,632
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.9% 16.6% 8.4% 1.6% 3.2% 13.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
16 28 20 13 9 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,492 4,387
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.5% 3.2%

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets closed higher for the week. Overall charts trends are trying to turn up for the medium term. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving and this could be due to less government subsidy for mills and exporters. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there. The Real has been trading near recent lows against the US Dollar and this should encourage export sales from Brazil as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers this week and dry weather this weekend. Scattered showers are forecast for next week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1350 March. Support is at 1260, 1240, and 1230 March, and resistance is at 1300, 1320, and 1330 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 348.00 and 358.00 March. Support is at 340.00, 335.00, and 331.00 March, and resistance is at 348.00, 351.00, and 356.00 March.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/26/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
78,519 34,831 49,904 9,042 1,130 1,914
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 44.4% 63.6% 11.5% 1.4% 2.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
132 48 38 9 4 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
17,273 14,102 5,330 3,956 1,199 2,174
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
22.0% 18.0% 6.8% 5.0% 1.5% 2.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
21 22 12 10 7 11
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,999 2,766
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.1% 3.5%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower and the long-awaited correction down has begun. Harvest is now active in West Africa and reports are that good volumes and quality are expected. Ideas are that demand is currently very strong due to the current price action. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. The precipitation is a little less now so there are no real concerns about disease. Ideas are that the next crop will be very good. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are doing what they can do boost Cocoa prices and are inviting Nigeria and Cameroon into the minimum pricing system they are creating.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.164 million bags. ICE said that 16 contracts were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 95 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2530 and 2460 March. Support is at 2540, 2510, and 2480 March, with resistance at 2610, 2670, and 2690 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1880 and 1850 March. Support is at 1870, 1840, and 1820 March, with resistance at 1910, 1930, and 1950 March.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/26/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
436,551 186,305 293,977 38,699 16,108 32,333
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 42.7% 67.3% 8.9% 3.7% 7.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
168 48 52 16 8 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
80,412 2,737 38,645 6,161 1,454 49,201
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
18.4% 0.6% 8.9% 1.4% 0.3% 11.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
46 6 15 16 13 26
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,795 2,095
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.1% 0.5%